Loyalty, Fear, and Laziness

As the economy cools down, resist the urge to retain employees who stay out of fear, and increase your proportion of loyalists.

It’s no secret that modern corporate America owes no allegiance to employees (save executives) but what’s been a bit slower to sink in is that the new worker feels the same way right back at them. In fact, some corporate moves, such as elimination of training, use the results as justification to exasperate the cause. Gamification and other ‘measurable methods’, such as personality testing, etc… are trying to make up for what could be achieved through transparency, leadership, and development of soft skills.

Here’s where China’s otherness can play to your advantage: while China has its own HR rules, you’re likely not bound in the same way as you are domestically at the corporate level. So rather than rely on the fad-derived opinion of some disproportionally powerful director with no hard skills or sense of your business, you can just do what works. Of course if you have an HR superstar, take advantage of it, but my experience is that field is still lagging even at otherwise progressive companies, to say nothing of application in a foreign culture.

A lot has been made of high turnover in China. However at companies doing it right turnover is remarkably low, and was even during the most frenzied growth. I’ve failed more than succeeded at poaching some top performers, despite promises of promotions and massive raises.

Let’s get one thing out of the way: you have to pay competitively. There’s no employee you want who will stay at 30% below market. There’s no trick, no combination of benefits, that can statistically bridge this gap.

Of the three, I’d rather keep the loyal and lazy over the scared. Why? Because workers who are afraid are unpredictable, and here I think I’m in line with modern thinking that can value reliability over even short-term incremental gains. Things scared employees do: take another job on the side (maybe even with a competitor), put up even higher barriers to communications, sabotage morale, steal, lie, disengage.

To clarify, by lazy I mean those who may have a malaise on the job, but don’t feel enough pain to either rock the boat or look for other work. I don’t mean those who can’t show up on time. And by afraid, I mean those who feel their position, status, prestige, or income are in jeopardy.

One advantage of a slowing economy is it gives the ambitious a wider tolerance band to wait for you to get your act together, and it gives the scared more willingness to listen to your overtures. Even the loyalists will appreciate the relationship more as they see the hardships their friends endure. The point is, you have to do what it takes to earn their loyalty. I’ve posted on how before, but this is carried on best by your local champions, supported by corporate.

Because China had a massive skills gap similar to our post-WWII boom, you have a situation a lot of near-retirees (should) appreciate: many hold jobs they’re essentially unqualified for. And like in the US, the good ones rose to the challenge. On both sides of the Pacific these people have something in their hearts you can’t buy: they recognize they were raised up by the grace of their employer.

They, unlike most of the new workforce, will tend to consider the company’s long-term needs ahead of their immediate bonus. They will organically create an environment that attempts to pass on the same ethic. The magic is that in China, these people could be in their 30’s, and you could get another 20-30 years out of them. If you don’t have any, now is also a good time to develop some.

The key is not to turn that loyalty into fear as you strive to apply your modern management theory. Just like they learned whatever hard skills they needed 10 years ago, they need to approach it like a problem to be solved and skill to be learned, not an attack on their position, ability or character. ‘Matrix organization with Chinese characteristics’ may be  order of the day, as they color things for local application, dynamically adding value so they’re not being 100% dictated to.

And in turn, giving them freedom, whether that’s for payroll, training, or team building, will allow them to take advantage of the slowdown to swell your ranks with the people you want, which will inevitably show up in whatever metrics you’d like to apply.

A different xiaolongbao joint in Shanghai

Go to 德兴馆 Dexingguan when you’re tired of taking friends to 南翔 nanxiang at Yu Yuan or going to 鼎泰丰 Din Tai Fung

My thanks to the CNN article here for turning me on to this place. 德兴馆 De Xin Guan, 471 Guangdong Lu, near Fujian Zhong Lu 广东路471号, 近福建中路, +86 21 6352 2535, 6:30 a.m-9:30 p.m

It’s in the Huangpu district and it’s great. Basic decor serving delicious, affordable food. I seem to recall ordering in Chinese, but I’m sure you should be able to get by with English or basic food Chinese.

If you’re taking friends or associates here are the main points: It’s over 100 years old and locals go there, so it’s historical and a little deeper level of tourism while still being safe and easily accessible. Perfect for your German friends who appreciate being a better tourist than others.

I don’t take a lot of pictures, so I don’t really have any, but it is two stories, with a spacious upstairs seating area. I believe this is a picture of the facade: dexingguan-min

So, about the Chinese stock market…

Does the statistical noise from Chinese financial reporting allow for ANY fundamental analysis?

Fortune published a neat article, citing Warren Buffet’s favourite metric, total market cap to GDP ratio, as an indication that the Chinese stock market may not be overvalued. Cool. Market cap is a well-defined number, and total GDP, even if you think it’s a bit jiggered, is maybe within 5% of something reasonable?

However, I’m still a little fuzzy on how desirable it is to invest in a market where you’re not sure if any financial results are bonafide. While stock prices and total market cap are well-defined numbers, what’s the variation on any given metric we must factor into our risk tolerance? 10% on fundamentals? 50% on 2nd-order variables?

With the Shanghai-HK Stock Connect granting more access, I get the impression that for many it’s a matter of wanting to be somewhere, and then picking some numbers to justify what’s essentially a gut instinct. Coupled with a local private investor frenzy, (who definitely see it as just gambling on good odds) it can look like money mindlessly flowing down the steepest hill, an example of one of the worst aspects of global capital.

How many years or decades before we know what any of these companies are really worth? But we’re happy living in a fantasy world so long as our quarterly growth looks good. And so here’s a case where the walls the central government have put up may actually help, because access has kept pace with transparency, mercifully contained.

Chinese soft power via Hollywood may eventually make us all better

Kowtowing to foreign sensibilities may be exactly what we need

My daughter recently started asking to watch Disney’s Mulan on a regular basis. I was shocked that such a movie was produced as recently as the 90’s. From the overt accent gags to the subtext, it could easily have come from their golden era.
Mulan-disneyscreencaps_com-183-min Really?

The recent ventures (WSJ article. Telegraph article. Variety.) of Chinese companies, particularly Fosun, Tencent, Alibaba, and Baidu, investing and investigating partnering with Hollywood, not only for distribution, but content creation, made me think of the future landscape and how it may be a positive one on both sides of the Pacific.

Even without the central government’s mandate to increase cultural influence, China’s rise is naturally accompanied by a desire to see its own face and story reflected in the stories of our time. They not only need good content for domestic channels, but want it projected on the world stage like the rest of their power, and they’re willing to take a longer view on investment in order to achieve this. So we have this interesting confluence of policy, ego, nationalism, and pure business that will inevitably bind Hollywood and China together. Perhaps not so tightly as automotive, but the effects will be familiar.

Story crafting, production, AB testing… knowledge required to make a blockbuster will transferred to the new partners, and it is in fact what they are investing in now as much as profits from any individual project. Having seen quite a few Chinese productions, they could really use this expertise. Adding subtlety to comedy, nuance to drama, telling stories more bravely, not more harshly–all things that would improve their productions, even for purely domestic consumption.

The flip side may actually be a slower process. You now have backers whose sensibilities you must take into account. I genuinely hope this isn’t in the form of, “take this joke out,” so much as an organic connection anyone who works in a multicultural city understands. Any minority artist, be they performer, author, what have you, is intensely aware of this divide, where inclusion has been at the indulgence of a magnanimous dominant culture, an enlightened liberal paving your way. But now that minority is bringing the cash, and this may be a case where having money involved may actually be a good thing.

A comment on Apple sales as a gauge of the Chinese economy

Huawei’s rise more than makes up for Apple’s shortfall

apple china-min Huawei results-min

While it’s true that auto and other consumer sales were down in June, an article citing an Apple downgrade citing it as evidence of China’s slowdown doesn’t seem like sound analysis.

Apple’s handset sales were of course up but they missed the ridiculous expectations by around 1.5 M units. This is more than made up for by Huawei’s 3.5 M increase in China alone.

Perhaps a more relevant statistic would be that overall smart phone sales are down about 4%, but the days of using Apple as an absolute barometer may be over with the rise of a powerful new domestic brand.